BRADO EM UNÍSSONO/THE CRY IN UNISON: #ORDER AND PROGRESS (BRAZILIAN FLAG MOTTO): an int...: #ORDER AND PROGRESS (BRAZILIAN FLAG MOTTO): an interim government challenge to recover from $42.13 billion fiscal gap LINK W...LINK: Voltar para onde você estava:
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[ENGLISH VERSION]
#ORDER AND PROGRESS (BRAZILIAN FLAG MOTTO): an interim government challenge to recover from $42.13 billion fiscal gap
[#ORDEM E PROGRESSO (LEMA DE NOSSA BANDEIRA): desafio da recuperação de déficit fiscal de mais R$ 150 billhões ($42.13 bilhões)]
May 19 The Brazilian government will likely announce a budget deficit of just over 150 billion reais ($42.13 billion)in 2016 after it decided to remove from its accounts a possible capitalization of state power holding Eletrobras, two officials told Reuters on Thursday. (Reuters)
[ENGLISH VERSION]
SOURCE LINK: http://www.reuters.com/article/brazil-economy-fiscal-idUSL2N18G24J
Markets | Thu May 19, 2016 5:25pm EDT
Related: Utilities
UPDATE 1-Brazil eyes fiscal gap of 150 bln reais without Eletrobras -sources
(Recasts with fiscal shortfall estimate and minister comments)
By Alonso Soto
May 19 The Brazilian government will likely announce a budget deficit of just over 150 billion reais ($42.13 billion)in 2016 after it decided to remove from its accounts a possible capitalization of state power holding Eletrobras, two officials told Reuters on Thursday.
Planning Minister Romero Juca said earlier on Thursday that the government will remove a possible capitalization of up to 40 billion reais from its primary budget deficit target. He said a fresh injection of cash into the indebted company will hinge on the result of an ongoing investigation.
Trading in American depositary receipts of Eletrobras was suspended on Wednesday after the company told the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission it would not file financial statements due to accounting problems. The government is concerned that Eletrobras' debt ratings could be cut as a result, triggering early debt repayment clauses.
Without a capitalization the primary deficit will likely be just over 150 billion reais, said the two officials who are directly involved in the budget discussions.
The government of Interim President Michel Temer has accused the previous administration of hiding a series of fiscal liabilities that inflated the primary deficit to a record high.
Suspended President Dilma Rousseff had estimated a deficit of 97 billion reais for this year. The primary deficit, which represents revenues minus expenditures before debt interest payments, is a closely watched gauge of creditworthiness.
Government officials have publicly released a series of figures that go from a deficit of 120 billion reais to a shortfall of more than 200 billion reais.
Temer has until the end of this month for Congress to approve a new primary deficit target to avoid a government shutdown.
Juca said the new primary budget estimate for the year will be unveiled on Monday and that Congress will vote on the target that same week. ($1 = 3.5606 Brazilian reais) (Reporting by Alonso Soto; Editing by James Dalgleish)
==//==
SOURCE/LINK:
http://www.itamaraty.gov.br/en/speeches-articles-and-interviews/minister-of-foreign-affairs-speeches/14044-speech-by-minister-jose-serra-on-the-occasion-of-the-ceremony-in-which-he-took-office-as-minister-of-foreign-affairs-brasilia-may-18-2016
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Speech by Minister José Serra on the occasion of the ceremony in which he took office as Minister of Foreign Affairs – Brasília, May 18, 2016
May 18, 2016 - 14:40
I would first like to greet Minister Gilmar Mendes, of the Federal Supreme Court;
The President of the Superior Court of Justice, Minister Francisco Falcão;
Minister Herman Benjamin, Minister Rogério Schietti and Minister Paulo Moura;
I would like to greet, and through him all the Congressmen here present, the chairman of the Foreign Affairs Committee of the Chamber of Deputies, Pedro Vilela;
And the Chairman of the Foreign Affairs Committee of the Senate, my colleague in the Senate, Aloysio Nunes, through whom I greet all our dear friends Senators;
I would like to greet His Excellency José Sarney, former President of the Republic, whom I consider played a key role in the redemocratization process of our country and deserves to be acknowledged at all times for this role.
I would like to greet Don Giovanni D'Aniello, Apostolic Nuncio, in whose name I greet the other foreign Ambassadors accredited to the Brazilian Government.
And to greet Ambassador Mauro Vieira, former Minister of State of Foreign Affairs, whom I thank for the helpfulness, I would say, and all cooperation in this transition of command of the Ministry. I would like to say to him that I consider him a man with an exemplary public career and a dignify disciple of a friend of mine, a common friend of ours, Minister Renato Archer.
I would also like to thank, very emphatically, President Michel Temer for the confidence to invite me for this Ministry, as well as for the patience to review and approve the guidelines of the New Brazilian Foreign Policy, which I will present today. President Temer read it with me, line by line, making comments, which I naturally took into account. I would like to say that 33 years of interaction with Michel Temer, either on the same side or on different sides of political life, were always accompanied by constant friendship, mutual respect and permanent dialogue.
And I finally would like to thank the presence of my colleagues Ministers, there are many here, I greet them through the name of Minister Romero Jucá, who, as fate would have it, will play a key role, together with me, in the recovery of the finances of Itamaraty. I believe the other Ministers will understand why I chose Minister Jucá to represent them in this greeting.
Let me also say of my joy in becoming part of an institution of great tradition and marked historical contribution to our country. Let me also say of the satisfaction in working with a body of civil employees of recognized competence and public spirit. I hope to convey here some essential ideas concerning the New Brazilian Foreign Policy. I have and I will always have, as always in my public life, the eyes to the future, and not to the mistakes of the past.
First guideline:
Diplomacy will again reflect, clearly and uncompromisingly, the legitimate values of the Brazilian society and the interests of its economy, at Brazil's service as a whole, not more at the conveniences and ideological preferences of a political party and its allies abroad. Our foreign policy will be governed by the values of the State and the Nation, not of the Government and never of a political party. This new policy will not break the good traditions of Itamaraty and of Brazilian diplomacy, but will, on the contrary, put them to a better use. Measures that, in other times, might have served the national interest, may not be compatible with the new reality of the country, and with the deep changes taking place in the international arena.
Second guideline:
We will be attentive to the defense of democracy, freedoms and human rights in any country, in any political regime, in accordance with the obligations assumed under international treaties and in respect to the principle of non-interference.
Third guideline:
Brazil will assume a special responsibility in respect to environmental issues, having, in the Amazon, the largest rainforest in the world, one of the major reserves of freshwater and biodiversity in the planet, as well as clean and renewable energy sources in order to play a proactive and pioneering role in the negotiations on climate change and sustainable development. I remind that, if we do our homework well, we may receive considerable resources from international organizations interested in helping us preserve the world's forests, water supplies and biodiversity, as Brazil makes the difference in this matter.
Fourth guideline:
At the UN, and in all global and regional forums in which it takes part, the Brazilian Government will develop constructive action in favor of peace and negotiated solutions to international conflicts and in favor of an adaptation of its structures to the new realities and international challenges; at the same time we will strive to overcome the triggers of frequent financial crises and the recent trend toward the slowdown of global trade. International trade is decreasing at a fast pace.
Fifth guideline:
Brazil will no longer restrict its freedom and extent of initiative due to an exclusive and paralyzing adhesion to the multilateral efforts within the scope of the WTO, as it happened in the past decade, to the detriment of the interests of the country. There is no doubt that the multilateral WTO negotiations are the only ones that could effectively correct the relevant systemic distortions, such as those affecting the trade of agricultural products. But these negotiations unfortunately have not flourished with the necessary speed and relevance, and Brazil, attached exclusively to them, remained in the margins of the multiplication of bilateral free trade agreements. The multilateralism that didn´t happen damaged the bilateralism that happened all around the world. Almost everyone invested in this multiplication, but us. We must and we will win this delay and recover lost opportunities.
Sixth guideline:
For all this, we will initiate, together with the Ministry of Industry, Trade and Services, with the support of the Chamber of Foreign Trade (CAMEX) and in intensive consultation with different productive sectors, an accelerated process of trade negotiations in order to open markets for our exports and create jobs for our workers using pragmatically the advantage of access to our large domestic market as an instrument for obtaining concessions negotiated on the basis of balanced reciprocity. Nothing would be more mistaken, at this stage of the Brazilian development, than to make concessions without reciprocity. It makes no sense.
Seventh guideline:
A major focus of our diplomatic action in the short term will be the partnership with Argentina, with which we share similar references to the reorganization of politics and economy. Along with other partners, we need to renew Mercosur with a view to correct what needs to be fixed, in order to strengthen it, first of all, concerning free trade between its member countries, to promote shared prosperity and continue to build bridges instead of deepening differences in relation to the Pacific Alliance, which is comprised of three South American countries, Chile, Peru and Colombia, in addition to Mexico. As Enrique Iglesias said, we cannot remain impassive as we observe the renewal of a sort of Tordesillas Treaty, which would deepen the separation between the east and west of the South American continent. With regard to Mexico, it will be crucial to take full advantage of the enormous potential of our complementary economies and international views.
Eighth guideline:
We will expand commerce with traditional partners such as Europe, the United States and Japan. The exchange of offers between Mercosur and the European Union will be the starting point to advance the conclusion of a trade agreement that promotes further expansion of commerce and of reciprocal investments, without detriment to the legitimate interests of various productive sectors in Brazil. As Minister Mauro said, there was the exchange of offers and we will now examine what are the offers of the European Union. With regard to the United States, we rely on short-term practical solutions for removing non-tariff barriers, which are, in today's world, the essential ones. In today´s world, from a commercial point of view, protection is not done with tariffs, but with non-tariff barriers. I want to state that Brazil, in this sense, is the most open country in the world, for we do not have any non-tariff barriers, unlike all other countries which present themselves as champions of free trade. With regard to the United States, we rely on short-term practical solutions for removing regulatory and non-tariff barriers which curb exchanges. We will also emphasize the immense possibilities of cooperation in energy, the environment, science, technology and education
Ninth guideline:
Priority will be given to the relationship with new partners in Asia, particularly China, this great economic phenomenon of the 21st century, and India. We will be equally committed to modernizing the bilateral exchange with Africa, the big neighbor on the other side of the Atlantic. This relationship cannot be restricted to fraternal ties of the past and to cultural similarities, but must, above all, be a way to forge solid partnerships in the present and for the future. Contrary to what was propagated among us, modern Africa does not ask for compassion, but expects an effective economic, technological and investment exchange. In this sense, the close and pragmatic solidarity with the countries in the southern hemisphere will continue to be an essential guideline of Brazilian diplomacy. This is the correct South-South strategy, and not the one that came to be pursued with propaganda purposes, limited economic benefits and considerable diplomatic investments. It is important to have a clear understanding that the different relationship axes between Brazil and the world are not contradictory or mutually exclusive, especially given the size of our nation. A country the size of Brazil does not choose or repels partnerships, but searches for them with intensity, inspired by its national interest. We will also take advantage of the opportunities offered by inter-regional fora with other developing countries, such as the BRICS, to accelerate commercial exchanges, investments and sharing of experiences. And with a sense of pragmatism, we will give attention to cooperation mechanisms with Africa and the Arab countries.
Tenth guideline:
In regard to foreign trade policies, the Government will always pay attention to the warning, stemming from good economic analysis, based on solid and broad consultation with the productive sectors. It is an illusion to assume that free trade agreements necessarily mean automatic and sustained increase in exports. There is only one factor that ensures the increase enduringly: the steady increase in productivity and competitiveness. It is a mistake to think that making an agreement and opening the market are necessary and sufficient conditions. We must invest in the steady increase in competitiveness and productivity. Hence the emphasis to be given to reducing the cost of doing business in Brazil through the elimination of tax distortions which increase sales abroad and the expansion and modernization of infrastructure through partnerships with both the national and international private sector. Today, the cost of doing business in Brazil is around 25%, i.e., a Brazilian product, identical to a typical average product from countries that are our trading partners, costs, due to the taxation, financial costs, infrastructure costs, 25% more. Imagine the challenge that we face ahead. And as I took office in the Ministry, I was aware, talking to our Ambassador to China, Roberto Jaguaribe, of the efforts of our embassies to attract investments for these basic sectors of the economy. Roberto was making efforts to bring Chinese capitals to Brazil, to invest in partnership with the Brazilian government in infrastructure projects. I am sure that these efforts will be successfully expanded.
I hereby conclude the guidelines, but if I had to add one more, I would cite one that we must meet, in cooperation with the Ministries of Justice, Defense and Finance, with regard to the Brazilian Federal Revenue: border protection, today the locus of the development of the organized crime in Brazil, which, let us make this clear, is sponsored by arms smuggling, smuggling of goods, which is monumental, and drug trafficking. We will strive particularly to mobilize cooperation of neighboring countries into a joint action against these criminal practices that cause so much harm to our people and our economy.
Last, but not least, I want to reaffirm my commitment to the Brazilian communities abroad and to the proper functioning of our consular service. We will continue to pay close attention to the rights of Brazilian citizens, wherever they are.
I now turn to the staff of the Ministry. We will recover Itamaraty's capacity to act, believe me. In a period of great changes and, why not say, uncertainties in the international scenario and of promising domestic changes, our diplomacy, I have no doubt, will have to gradually update itself and innovate, and even to dare, promoting a modernizing reform in the objectives, methods and working techniques. The diplomacy of the twenty-first century cannot solely rely on the rhetorical exuberance and the self-laudatory tone of the joint communiqués. It needs to have clear goals and be at the same time political discourse and concrete results.
Brazil is proud of its diplomats and they inspire respect among our partners abroad. I want to strengthen the diplomatic career, as well as other careers in the Foreign Service. I will respect the merit criteria, instead of discriminating in favor of the friends of the king or the supporters of a given political party. I want to gradually end Itamaraty’s penury, in which it was left by the fiscal irresponsibility that dominated the Brazilian economy during this decade. I want to strengthen the Ministry, not weaken it. We will restore the pride of the new generations in serving Itamaraty and especially Brazil. The Ministry will be strengthened, not weakened. And in the government of President Temer, Itamaraty will be back to the core of the government.
My action plan will correspond to my record in public life: to work hard, present and receive ideas, take initiatives, delegate responsibilities, demand results and promote effective negotiations, as well as having a strong presence, far from a schedule of innocuous visits.
These are the commitments I present today. This is the invitation that I make to all the staff of this Ministry, so that we can make a joint effort to strengthen Itamaraty and help this government to succeed, despite the fact that it will face, as we all know, immense challenges, but will create, God willing, the conditions for the reconstruction of the political system, the strengthening of our democracy and the return of growth in production and employment.
Thank you, let´s get to work and move on.
==//==
http://www.cnbc.com/2016/05/12/reuters-america-un-chief-ban-ki-moon-is-monitoring-events-in-brazil-urges-calm-and-dialogue-trusts-authorities-will-adhere-to-constitution.html
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U.N. CHIEF BAN KI-MOON IS MONITORING EVENTS IN BRAZIL, URGES "CALM AND DIALOGUE", TRUSTS AUTHORITIES WILL ADHERE TO CONSTITUTION -U.N. SPOKESMAN
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U.N. CHIEF BAN KI-MOON IS MONITORING EVENTS IN BRAZIL, URGES "CALM AND DIALOGUE", TRUSTS AUTHORITIES WILL ADHERE TO CONSTITUTION -U.N. SPOKESMAN
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==//==
SOURCE/LINK:http://www1.folha.uol.com.br/internacional/en/brazil/2016/05/1772851-there-is-no-coup-in-brazil-says-us-representative-for-oas.shtml
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There Is No Coup in Brazil, Says US Representative for OAS
05/19/2016 - 10h26
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MARCELO NINIO
FROM WASHINGTON
The US ambassador for the OAS (Organisation of American States) dismissed the notion that a coup is underway in Brazil. He rejected the concern voiced by member states such as Venezuela, Bolivia and Nicaragua in the plenary of the organisation this Wednesday (18).
This is the first time that the American government has openly dismissed a notion that impeachment of suspended President Dilma Rousseff was a coup d'etat, as she has claimed. Until now, the US's position was one of cautious reticence, although it had constantly reiterated the conviction that the impeachment case respected democratic norms.
Michael Fitzpatrick, the American ambassador, intervened to contradict the claim made by the Bolivian and Venezuelan representatives that the impeachment was a coup.
The USA were the only country to vehemently reject the hypothesis, pointing out that the only place where democracy is at risk is Venezuela.
Last week, the Venezuelan government, currently facing extreme opposition among its populace, summoned their ambassador in Brazil back to Venezuela, in a dramatic anti-impeachment gesture.
According to Fitzpatrick, there is no doubt that in Brazil "there is a clear respect for democratic institutions and a clear separation of powers. In Brazil it is clearly the law that prevails, coming up with peaceable solution to disputes. There is nothing comparable between Brazil and Venezuela. It is in the latter where democracy is threatened."
"We don't believe that this is an example of a 'soft coup' or, for that matter, a coup of any sort. What happened in Brazil complied perfectly with legal constitutional procedure and totally respected democratic norms," he stated.
The ambassador of Brazil for the OAS, José Luiz Machado e Costa, also voiced his opinion, emphasising the "vitality of the democratic system" . He said that in Brazil "social rights and the interests of Brazilian society were clearly being prioritised."
He also questioned the involvement of other countries in Brazil's domestic issues, since many of these countries seemed reluctant themselves to accept external opinions regarding their state matters.
Argentina also spoke out in support of Brazil, stating its faith in the country's institutions.
The Secretary General of the OAS, Luis Almagro, revealed his public support for Rousseff and questioned several times the legal basis of the impeachment against her.
Also this Wednesday, the OAS Committee of Human Rights published a statement in which it described the cabinet formed by Michel Temer as a "step backwards", owing to the absence of women and black people.
Translated by GILLIAN SOPHIE HARRIS
Read the article in the original language
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SOURCE/LINK:http://007bondeblogworld.blogspot.com.br/2016/05/uncle-sam-validate-coup-in-brazil-us.html
SOURCE/LINK:http://midianews.com.br/politica/eua-na-oea-nao-ha-golpe-de-estado-de-nenhum-tipo-no-brasil/263798
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SOURCE / LINK: http://politica.estadao.com.br/noticias/geral,ordem-e-progresso,10000051263
Order and Progress
Tags:
Eliane Cantanhêde,
Michel Temer,
s state. Paulo,
Michel Temer
Eliane Cantanhêde
May 15, 2016 | 03h 00
The mark "Order and Progress" not only honors the positivist motto of the Brazilian flag as contains a comparison between the government and the government comes out for now, temporarily. The intention of Michel Temer is to "order" the mess in the direct administration in the state in pension funds and the agencies, and take tough measures, but necessary to stop the recession and resume a pace of "progress" .
It was in these two directions that Temer set up a ministry that in many cases it makes no sense to public opinion in general (and already picking corporations and niche), but it makes sense when he has to face with courage the most urgent problem: the rhombus public accounts. The reduction of ministries, the downsizing of the machine and austerity signals are only signs, but when Temer tries, the screaming is deafening.
Very calm at this time. Itamar, Cardoso, Lula and Rousseff had a truce to assume the presidency. Why not give a respite to Temer, which comes in much more difficult circumstances, in the midst of an unprecedented sum of crises? Criticize, yes, but playing against, at this time, extrapolates to irresponsibility. The premiere of the strong economic man, Henrique Meirelles, mobilized the political and business world and what was clear is that the government's fiscal situation as dramatic, is even worse than you think. Here comes an audit of the accounts, to see the actual size of the hole.
Incidentally, one of the drains covered by Temer team is in social programs, not only to identify the "misuse" by incompetence, as Meirelles said, but also to find out how, how much and to whom flows or can flow, financing CUT, MST, UNE and MTST, threatening miserable life of the new government. The intention is to dry up the source, but distinguishing what is "social program" and which is gas to "articulate groups" (and enemies). A marshland.
In his last speech, while militants assaulted journalists, Rousseff added a new item
Tags:
Eliane Cantanhêde,
Michel Temer,
s state. Paulo,
Michel Temer
==//==
SOURCE/LINK:http://www.bloomberg.com/news/videos/2016-05-12/the-big-challenges-facing-brazil-s-michel-temer
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The Big Challenges Facing Brazil's Michel Temer
May 12, 2016
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Monica de Bolle, Peterson Institute visiting fellow, discusses the challenges facing Brazil's new acting President Michel Temer. She speaks with Bloomberg's Carol Massar on "Bloomberg Markets." (Source: Bloomberg)
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34:08 - Joel Velasco, senior VP at Albright Stonebridge Group, discusses the challenge facing Brazil's Acting President Michel Temer to restore Brazil's business climate and fix the nation's economy. He speaks on "Bloomberg Markets." (Source: Bloomberg)
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SOURCE/LINK:https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=R3S9oa9RMbc
Inauguração Eldorado Brasil - Entrevista Michel Temer
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Michel Temer, Presidente da República em exercício, cumprimenta os empresários pela inauguração da Eldorado Brasil em Três Lagoas (MS) e mostra o otimismo do Governo Brasileiro com o desenvolvimento da região e do País.
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This is Brazil's new leader: Michel Temer - BBC News
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Brazil impeachment New leader Temer calls for trust
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Published on May 12, 2016
Brazil's new interim President Michel Temer has addressed the nation after the Senate voted to back the impeachment trial of Dilma Rousseff.
"Trust in the values of our people and in our ability to rebuild the economy," Mr Temer said.
He has named a business-friendly cabinet that includes respected former central bank chief Henrique Meirelles as finance minster.
Ms Rousseff denounced her removal as a "farce" and "sabotage".
Mr Temer was the leftist Ms Rousseff's vice-president before withdrawing his party's support in March. She has accused him of involvement in a "coup".
After Wednesday's all-night session that lasted more than 20 hours, senators voted by 55 votes to 22 to suspend her and put her on trial for budgetary violations.
In her final speech on Thursday afternoon, she again denied the allegations and vowed to fight what she called an "injustice" by all legal means.
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Mr Temer, 75, has now taken over as president for up to 180 days - the maximum time allowed for the impeachment trial of Ms Rousseff, 68.
He said: "It is urgent to restore peace and unite Brazil. We must form a government that will save the nation."
Stressing that "economic vitality" was his key task, he added: "It is essential to rebuild the credibility of the country at home and abroad to attract new investments and get the economy growing again."
But he also said Brazil was still a poor nation and that he would protect and expand social programmes.
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Brazil’s acting president meets with new cabinet
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Brazil's Interim President Michel Temer has met with his newly-installed cabinet. Temer took power on Thursday after the Senate voted to suspend Dilma Rousseff pending a decision on whether to remove her from office permanently. Temer charged his new ministers with enacting business-friendly policies while maintaining the still-popular social programs that were the hallmark of Rousseff's Workers' Party.
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Michel Temer faz primeiro pronunciamento como presidente | COMPLETO | 12/05/2016
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Michel Temer é o novo presidente do brasil.Michel Temer faz primeiro pronunciamento como presidente - 12/05/2016. O presidente em exercício Michel Temer afirmou nesta quinta-feira (12), em seu primeiro pronunciamento como substituto de Dilma Rousseff no comando do Palácio do Planalto, que irá manter os programas sociais da gestão petista, como Bolsa Família, Pronatec e Minha Casa, Minha Vida.Primeiro Pronunciamento de Michel Temer à Nação Como Presidente
Michel Temer faz primeiro pronunciamento como presidente
Temer também afirmou que, além de melhorar o ambiente de negócios no país para o setor privado, para produzir e gerar emprego, é necessário restaurar as contas públicas. “De imediato, precisamos também restaurar o equilíbrio das contas públicas, trazendo a evolução do envidividamento do setor público de volta ao patamar de sustentabilidade. Quanto mais cedo formos capazes de reequelibrar as contas públcaas, mais rápido consehuiremos retomar o crescimento”, declarou.
Michel Temer faz primeiro pronunciamento como presidente. Primeiro Pronunciamento de Michel Temer à Nação Como Presidente
Temer assumiu interinamente a Presidência na manhã desta quinta, após o Senado aprovar, por 55 votos a favor e 22 contra, a instauração de seu processo de impeachment. Logo depois de a petista ser intimada sobre o afastamento, o vice-presidente foi notificado da decisão dos senadores.Temer faz primeiro discurso
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SOURCE/LINK:http://www.worldbank.org/en/news/press-release/2015/05/19/world-bank-the-trade-challenge-for-latin-america-and-the-caribbean
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World Bank: The Trade Challenge for Latin America and the Caribbean
May 19, 2015
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Stronger and Broader Integration Key to Revert Region’s Lag in Global Trade
LIMA, May 19th, 2015 – Back in the 1980’s, trade ties for Latin America and the Caribbean were very similar to those of East Asia -- thin and focused on a single key player in the North, United States and Japan, respectively. Today, East Asia’s trade network is much denser and productive, crisscrossing among its countries and extending to the north. In contrast, Latin America’s remains narrow and dominated by the United States, followed at a very distant second by Brazil.
The World Bank’s latest flagship report for the region, “Latin America and the Rising South: Changing World, Changing Priorities” launched here today, provides an in-depth look at these global connections in trade and finance, and a sober assessment of their promise and trials for the region.
The global economic landscape has experienced tectonic shifts that have left the old north-south hierarchy behind. In the past four decades, the gross domestic product (GDP) of the South doubled to about 40 percent of the world’s total, the share of global trade from the South also doubled to 51 percent and its share of global capital inflows nearly tripled to 50 percent. Within a decade the expectation is that the share of the developing world in global GDP will be higher (55 percent) than that of the North.
“The rise of the South has left a noticeable mark upon the world economy. But this unquestionable impact conceals important differences among the countries of the South,” said Augusto de la Torre, World Bank Chief Economist for the region.“The differences between the wealth of connections from Asia, compared to those of Latin America, suggest that our region is still not benefitting from the virtuous circle created by integrating more with your neighbors and then with the world.”
The report finds, for instance, that between 2000 and 2012, the South’s share of global manufacture exports increased from 32 to 48 percent but most it due to China. In fact, China’s share increased by more than 10 percentage points while the share of the other top 20 manufacture exporters from the South - which include Brazil and Chile - increased by only 8 percent in total. What’s more, for some countries in the South, including Mexico, it actually decreased.
Also significant is the fact that East Asian countries participate much more actively in cross-country production networks, known as Global Value Chains (GVCs), than most Latin American countries. In fact, the report finds that Latin American countries tend to integrate to GVCs only at the beginning –as exporters of raw materials- or at the end – as manufacturers of final goods – and not in the middle, a “sweet spot” that provides the most potential growth gains.
“The initial force from the global South’s emergence -- and in particularly the China-led commodity boom -- brought tremendous economic and social gains to Latin America. Today, however, as that force wanes, it is more pressing for Latin American countries to become better players in this transformed landscape,” said De la Torre. “What we have learned so far is that it is not enough to have global trade or to receive foreign direct investment. There is more to be done to take full advantage of that trade and investment.”
More precisely, Latin America and the Caribbean will need to find ways to improve its human and physical capital as well as its technological capacity and business environment. To that end, the report points to three policy areas for policymakers to consider in this transformed global environment that calls for a rethinking of priorities:
Allowing economic flexibility in labor and capital reallocations so that labor and capital can find their way into the most productive sectors.
Learning through international trade and investment so that the region does not underutilize its cross-border commercial and financial connections with neighbors and other partners.
Raising saving rates to help enhance trade diversification by reducing overvalued currency that makes exports less competitive.
All these crucial reforms, the report concludes, will require deft political leadership. But it argues that this irreversible change in the global economy is a unique opportunity for Latin America to unleash its growth potential once and for all.
For more information on the World Bank's work in Latin America and the Caribbean: www.worldbank.org/lac
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